CincyStreetcar Blog

Question: What would the harm be in dedicating buses to the streetcar route for a few years to see if the benefits are starting to be realized before spending $128 million to build the streetcar?

Answer: The harm would be threefold—direct costs, opportunity costs, and lack of probative value.

The direct cost would be the costs of acquiring and operating the buses.  In order for the bus experiment to be as accurate as possible, the buses would have to have a similar capacity and frequency to the streetcars.  I think we can all agree if the city were only running one bus along the route, it wouldn’t come anywhere close to approximating streetcar system. Similarly adding a few automobile ferries next to the Brent Spence Bridge wouldn’t accurately simulate adding additional lanes.

A single streetcar carries around 170 people.  A bus carries around 45.  The City plans on purchasing 7 streetcars.  A bus fleet with a similar capacity would number 26.4.  If you take into account maintenance and the need for spare vehicles, you could probably get away with 24 buses.  Each bus costs about $350,000, so 24 buses would cost $8,400,000.00.

Operating the buses would cost money as well.  Driver’s salaries are the largest operating expense in any transit system.  (One of the benefits of the streetcar is that a single driver’s salary is spread over 170 passengers instead of 45.)  To estimate the operating cost per bus I divided METRO’s total budget ($94.5 million) over the number of buses it operates (391) to come up with a per bus per year operating cost of $241,687.98.  Based on this projection 24 buses would result in a yearly operating cost of $5,800,511.51.

Running this system for a few years as suggested would be a very expensive test.  Three years would cost $25,801,534.53 in capital and operating costs.

But there are also opportunity costs as well.  The City estimates “Costs can be conservatively estimated to escalate $5.1 million each year beyond 2010.”  Delaying the streetcar three years would cost $15.3 million in inflationary costs.  With many construction companies in need of work and lower material prices, now is the time to build.   The other opportunity cost would be the delay of benefits to City that would come from having a streetcar.  I will not attempt to quantify them in this posting, but it is something of which to be aware.

Combining the direct and opportunity costs leads to a cost of the three year trial of over $40 million.  The next question: would this trial produce accurate results?  My belief is it would not.

The Streetcar will produce two main types of benefits—ridership benefits and economic development benefits.  The bus experiment will not accurately predict either type of benefit

Ridership on the bus experiment will be lower than it would be on a streetcar.  Route legibility of a bus route is worse than a streetcar.  Unlike a bus, someone unfamiliar with a streetcar route can see the tracks and know where the line goes.  People are more likely to get on public transit when they know where it is going.

Additionally the bus experiment assumes transit riders exhibit “mode-neutrality” when in reality they do not.  Mode-neutrality presumes that a transit rider will exhibit no preference for rail over buses.  This is not the case.  Many visitors to New York or Chicago will take the subway or the “L” but will not ride a bus to get around. For an example closer to home, think about the airport.  If you had to choose one or the other, would you rather take the train to Concourse B or the shuttle bus connection to Concourse C

Finally you will not receive the same economic development benefits with the bus experiment as you would with a streetcar.  The reason the streetcar encourages economic development is because it is a permanent infrastructure investment.  The tracks are laid in the ground and will not move.  People know that in 20 years the streetcar will still be running that route and make long term investments, like buying a house or opening a business, based on that fact.

By contrast, the bus experiment is not only temporary it is explicitly temporary.  Anyone who could wait to make an investment along the line likely would wait until the final decision on the streetcar could be made.  If an entrepreneur wanted to locate a new business along the streetcar line because it would attract more customers and make it easier to get to the store, she would likely wait until the decision had been made on whether or not to actually build the streetcar before making the investment. Fewer people will buy house or open a business along a bus route that will stop running in a few years and may or may not lead to a streetcar than would invest along an announced and funded streetcar line. Imagine if new exit was built off of I-75 that would be closed in two years if it didn’t receive enough usage, business owners would be reluctant to locate there for fear of their access being cut off.  The same would be true of a temporary bus experiment.

Because there will be lower ridership, less economic development, and considerable costs, conducting a bus experiment along the streetcar line would be imprudent and the results of such experiment would not accurately predict the success of the streetcar.  That would be the harm.

From the Alliance for Regional Transit, North American cities with light rail and/or streetcars, many smaller and less-dense than Cincinnati:

Systems Now in Operation:

1) Baltimore
2) Boston
3) Buffalo
4) Calgary
5) Camden/Trenton
6) Charlotte
7) Cleveland
8.) Dallas
9) Denver
10) Edmonton
11) Houston
12) Kenosha
13) Little Rock
14) Los Angeles
15) Memphis
16) Minneapolis
17) Newark
18) New Orleans
19) Northern New Jersey
20) Philadelphia
21) Phoenix
22) Pittsburgh
23) Portland
24) Sacramento
25) St. Louis
26) Salt lake City
27) San Diego
28) San Francisco
29) San Jose
30) San Juan
31) Seattle
32) Tacoma
33) Tampa
34) Toronto

Systems under Construction:

1) Norfolk
2) Washington D.C.
3) Tucson

In case you were wondering where Kenosha was located

It feels like it hasn’t stopped raining all week.  It would be great to be able to hop on a streetcar to get out of the rain on your way to lunch, a meeting, or to return materials to the library.

Following the initial success of the Cincinnati Streetcar T-shirts, a fourth run of the shirts has been produced.  These shirts feature ‘gameday’ colors of either red with a black logo or black with an orange logo.  “These shirts are the perfect way to show your support for the Cincinnati Streetcar and your favorite team” says Brad Thomas, founder of Cincystreetcar.com. The new shirts are available at Market Wines in historic Findlay Market located at 128 W. Elder Street open Tuesday through Sunday all year round.

Queen City Discovery presents a Virtual Tour of the Cincinnati Streetcar:

Two years after its initial launch the website www.cincystreetcar.com has been re-launched with a new focus and design.  The new site features expanded multi-media content, links to the various studies on Cincinnati Streetcar, updated route maps, and a gallery of supporters.

“We wanted to broaden the scope of the site,” says Brad Thomas, the founder of cincystreetcar.com.  “Initially this project began as an initiative of the Mayor’s Young Professional Kitchen Cabinet, but we want to make clear that the streetcar benefits all the residents of Cincinnati, everyone from young families to the elderly.”  Charles Schaser, a Price Hill resident who has been involved in the streetcar effort agrees streetcars are an important part of the City’s future.  “Around the country, streetcars are proven tools of economic development.  Where the tracks go, new development follows,” Schaser says.

The new site features links to the numerous studies that have been conducted on the streetcar and details the benefits of investing in the Cincinnati Streetcar.  “Tom Luken, one of the leaders of the Anti-Passenger Rail Charter Amendment, speaking to the Enquirer about streetcar advocates said ‘They’ve got an answer for everything,’” says Thomas, “He’s right, the streetcar has been thoroughly studied and you can find the answers at Cincystreetcar.com.”

Cincystreetcar.com would like to thank all those who have donated their time and resources to the streetcar campaign, especially The Hodges Law Group and Mr. & Mrs. Charles Prince & Family for providing financial and technical support. Visit the updated site here.